Gasoline Weekly(March 28, 2025)

Overview of the gasoline market

This week (20250321-20250327), the main wholesale price of gasoline is stable and strong, specifically, the quotation in most parts of the country has been raised, the range is concentrated in 10-250 yuan/ton, and the price in some regions has been stable and transitioning. The overall ex-factory price of local refining has risen and fallen, and the low-end price in Shandong, Northwest, East China, Southwest and North China has been raised by 30-200 yuan/ton; The high-end prices in Northeast China, Central China and North China were lowered by 5-110 yuan/ton. The main factors influencing the rise in international oil prices this week are: market concerns about potential supply risks caused by the United States' strengthened sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, the continuation of instability in the Middle East, and the decline in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories. In terms of the domestic gasoline market, the cost side has been strongly guided this week, the weather has warmed, the terminal demand has improved, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower ends of the market has risen, and the appropriate amount of replenishment has increased. Towards the end of the month, the completion of monthly tasks is different, the demand has rebounded, the shipment speed of refineries is acceptable, the production and sales data have improved, so the price mentality of some main refineries has increased.

Gasoline price index

According to TDD, as of March 27, the domestic 92# gasoline price index was 8333.86, an increase of 79.9 from March 20, an increase of 0.97%; The 95# gasoline price index was 8584.23, an increase of 74.75, or 0.88%. The 92# and 95# gasoline indices were raised, and the price difference between the 92# gasoline and 95# gasoline indices was 250.37.

Forecast for the future market

From the perspective of international crude oil, the risk of US tariff policy brings bearish pressure, the situation in the Middle East is still unstable, and potential supply risks continue. On the demand side, the rising temperature, coupled with the Qingming holiday next week, will increase residents' private car trips, and the terminal demand will be positive, supporting the upward trend of oil prices. Recently, refinery shipments have improved, coupled with the conversion at the beginning of next week, and the willingness to raise prices continues. On the whole, it is expected that there is still room for domestic gasoline prices to rise in the short term.